Author: davejarvisnh

  • Election Math for Pollsters: Undeclared Voters, Welcome to the Dave Party!

    So, the fix is in.

    Chris Pappas is destined to win the New Hampshire Democratic primary for U.S. Senate. They’re saying he’ll win 59% of the vote. That’s enough. He wins. Everybody go home.

    Nothing else to see here.

    What that means is that he is destined to win 59% of the Democratic vote, or about 16% of registered voters.

    The Republican Party currently makes up 33% of New Hampshire voters, and John Sununu is expected to win his primary handily, with 54% of Republicans, or about 18% of the voting public.

    So, our two front-runners are spending a combined $27 million, some of it from foreign nations pulling us into world war three and some from other murky organizations, to win their respective primaries, with a combined total of about 34% of the potential voting public behind them.

    That means 66% of New Hampshire voters would not prefer either of them, based on those numbers.

    Undeclared voters make up 39% of New Hampshire’s voters. That’s more than the combined share represented by Pappas and Sununu in these calculations.

    Their only problem is that they don’t seem to know how powerful they are.

    I think both parties need a spanking, and undeclared voters are just the people to do it. I don’t want to be a backseat parent, but you might consider striking your child. Feel free to start with the Democrat. I’ll look the other way.

    I won’t pressure all you undeclared voters to vote for me. Use your best judgment.

    Just understand the power you have to influence our political system.

    And good luck to you. God Bless.

  • Believe, or Wither. Your Choice.

    One apple normally has five seeds. If, after the apple were consumed, those seeds were planted, they could produce five apple trees. Over the lifetime of those trees, those five trees could produce at least five thousand apples, and potentially twenty-five thousand seeds.

    By the next generation, those seeds could become twenty-five thousand trees. The generation after that could produce 125 million trees.

    Within only a few generations, there would not be enough space or resources on Earth to contain them.

    This is our world. This is our universe.

    There is magic baked into it.

    In the world of ideas, a heartfelt, authentic, genuine idea born in human consciousness has the same power as a seed.

    It not only grows. It copies itself. It expands.

    A beautiful poem, a spiritual truth, an expression of freedom, a promise of love, or a heartfelt appreciation for this life and this world, all have the potential to spill into infinity.

    This is the story of our nation. We were conceived in ideas, beautiful ideas. And they have echoed out into the world for two hundred and fifty years. Those ideas fed us when there was no food. They kept us warm in those dark, cold moments. And they gave us hope when there seemed to be none.

    Ideas born out of necessity last only as long as the immediate problem exists.

    A decision made for momentary profit, a pickup line in the pursuit of easy sex, or a vote earned by money or the promise of an easy win, they all die quickly.

    They are evidence of a transactional mindset. They contain nothing worth copying, nothing worth repeating. They are the call sign of an inner emptiness extracting immediate gratification and planning for nothing in the future. They are why you feel so empty and lonely in this world.

    Life is easy.

    Be passionate.

    Believe in ideas. Share them.

    Believe in hope.

    Or, stop calling yourself an American because it’s embarassing to the rest of us.

  • Chris Pappas and Gaza:When Being Nice isn’t Enough

    I don’t know Chris Pappas. I have no insight into his personality. But the word on the street is that he is a nice guy.

    The truth is, the world is filled with nice people.

    Many nice people are currently on the streets of New Hampshire’s cities, holding signs, asking for money and, in many cases, appearing powerless to their own circumstances.

    Chris Pappas’s signs are huge.

    Over the past few months, we have seen his campaign produce content, advertisements, statements about his Senate campaign, fundraising appeals, and warnings about Washington corruption. We have seen the polished machinery of a well-funded modern political campaign operating at full speed. And his message consistently implies moral urgency.

    But what about genocide in Gaza?

    I am neither a political supporter of the Palestinians nor the Israelis. I’m an American. And having lived and worked in the Middle East and having listened to many opinions on Israel and Palestine, I feel even more grateful to call myself an American. As an American, taking sides on this issue means allowing hell to grab you. The violence and hatred on both sides are unthinkable.

    I would be more supportive of both peoples if their leadership were to change. I am sure they could say the same about our country. But history has proven that blind support can make bad situations worse. And these days, when it comes to the politics of the Middle East, we are blind enough to know that the only thing we can confidently support is diplomacy.

    It seems simple.

    We need to stop the killing. We especially need to stop the killing of civilians. We should be extraordinarily protective of the lives of children. And we can’t let genocide happen in foreign countries with weapons we produce. If any of this were to happen, our elected leaders should be screaming from the watchtower to make it stop.

    Twenty thousand children killed in Gaza. Thirty thousand wounded. Fifty thousand overall.

    Kids.

    Whatever concern our Congressman Pappas has demonstrated about Gaza has been repeatedly outdone by the likes of Tucker Carlson, Candace Owens, Piers Morgan, and others in the right-wing media.

    It’s just foul.

    Buried beneath the rest of his political messaging, he has written statements echoing the interest his society around him feels. But he follows behind and drags his feet. I don’t hear moral clarity. I don’t hear leadership.

    And then there is the money.

    The fact that he received around $820,000 from Netanyahu supporters turns whatever concerns I have into full-blown nausea.

    $820,000.

    What do they want?

    What do they expect in return for $820,000?

    Those are the questions I would have.

    It would seem that a hundred thousand dead Gazans, the utter destruction of Gaza itself, silence from the United States Congress, and continued military support and funding for the Netanyahu regime would seem to be the appropriate cost in services for that kind of money.

    Furthermore, keeping foreign thugs and lack of judgment in mind, there are the nine million dollars already raised for his Senate campaign. What do those donors expect from a United States senator from New Hampshire? How much more can nine million dollars buy?

    Diving through all those receipts and checking the motivations of donors and promises given is an impossible task.

    It would seem much easier to just stop feeding the beast.

    People are complex. Power corrupts. Chicken tenders are very tasty, and Chris Pappas may indeed be a nice guy. But being nice is not the same thing as having clear judgment.

    To this day, I haven’t heard anything resembling real concern, regret, or alarm indicating that he is aware he may have been receiving hush money from a genocidal regime. I just hear him asking for more money. So, I suggest the people of New Hampshire take a look around their cities at the people at stoplights holding signs asking for money and ponder the level of desperation behind those signs.

    Around the time the bombing of Iran started and our country blew up a school with children in it, the most prominent response I saw from my congressman at that moment was concern about the price of gas.

    It seems obvious that he needs a little time in detox. That’s what would be said in the general election, with more force than I have said here. He would make John Sununu look compassionate just as he currently makes Tucker Carlson look today.

    As I said, I don’t know him. But he seems like a nice person.

    We all get lost sometimes.

  • Reestablishing Trust

    Trust in government seems to be at a dangerously low level. That’s important since the thing that separates democracy from civil war is trust. At some point, we need to return toward balance on the topics that are the most important and which give our people concern for the future. And we must turn away from extreme political and financial ambition.

    The only ambition that truly makes sense is ambition for a better society. I have met billionaires in mansions surrounded by slums. I have seen princes rule over societies built on exploitation while living in constant fear of revolt. I have met the children of the global wealthy who wanted nothing more than to live the ordinary middle-class life I grew up with here in New Hampshire. Personal wealth without social unity is just another form of slavery. Trust and unity in society are the least expensive ways of generating real societal wealth.

    Our politicians destroy our trust constantly.

    Chris Pappas, technically, may not have accepted hush money to lubricate the destruction of the people of Gaza. However, he did receive approximately $820,000 in pro-Israel funds. Then, when we cancel out Netanyahu’s talking points from Pappas’s public statements about Gaza, what remains sounds a lot like silence.

    It doesn’t build much trust.

    Being an “alpha male” is not leadership. Those who aspire to dominate through intimidation, including the man currently occupying the highest office in the country, seem better suited to the social hierarchy of lower primates than to a modern democracy. Our president’s daily behavior and tone force the people who elected him to decide, over and over again, whether they trust him. He seems unconcerned with the fact that 65% don’t.

    Meanwhile, John Sununu has deemed that the people of New Hampshire don’t deserve to know whether he accepts or rejects the president’s endorsement. Perhaps being a Sununu means that transparency doesn’t apply to him. But, considering the mood in the country, it should.

    Here are some ways I will work to rebuild trust in our political system.

    Abortion

    I do not support restrictions during the first twelve weeks of pregnancy. But I believe the current liberal de facto position supporting legal abortion through the third trimester is politically damaging, morally troubling, and ultimately unsustainable.

    Some restrictions and compassion across the board will help rebuild some trust across our society. It may not feel good for those on the extremes, but that’s how compromise feels.

    Food and Farming

    As artificial intelligence continues to reduce the amount of work available, we need a stronger agricultural system and reliable access to healthy food for those who need it. SNAP should be reformed so that it covers staple foods and fresh produce instead of unhealthy products. We should not make people sick with taxpayer dollars, especially if they are on Medicaid.

    Farm subsidies should be integrated more directly into a healthy food system, encouraging regenerative farming practices that improve both the quality of our food and the health of our environment.

    Health Care

    One of the greatest strengths of a free-market economy is that consumers influence both price and quality at the point of purchase. Unfortunately, the high cost of medical care has largely eliminated that influence. Most Americans cannot shop for major medical procedures. Instead, we gamble through an insurance system that inflates prices.

    We need to restore consumer purchasing power in health care while preparing for the economic disruption AI is likely to bring.

    The Environment

    We have to turn back to a concern for our environment. In the heat of the political contention of the last few years we have dropped the ball. We don’t need fear, panic, obsession, or denial. We just need to think clearly, find low cost solutions, and at least have concern for the environment as a national initiative again.

    God

    We need a higher power even if our level of belief is at empty. We need to try to believe in meaning to our lives and to our mission as a country. It doesn’t have to be a Project 2025 kind of God. We don’t need to return to some puritanical ideal. But forgiveness matters, and so does hope. God helps with both.

    Leadership

    We depend on open communication, trust, humility, compassion, and maybe even some friendliness. Once we rebuild those foundations, everything else becomes possible.

    • Welcome

      Hello,

      Well, I am finally announcing. My name is Dave Jarvis. I am a candidate for U.S. Senate here in New Hampshire. Following this message is an article I wrote showing my opinions on some important topics. I believe it’s worth reading and there’s plenty more to come.

      My main goal during this race is to remain myself. Something changes in us when we put ourselves out there publicly, especially when we have any kind of social anxiety, which I do. I want to stay close to God, remain respectful of others, and run an honest and empathetic race. My second goal is to, figuratively, feel the bones of all who oppose me crushing in my fingers with their metaphorical marrow oozing out.

      So, it’s a work in progress.

      My dad wasn’t rich and popular. I don’t agree with everything my party says. I also haven’t imbibed completely the current Socialist Democrat koolaid. I would prefer that our national wealth not flee to Switzerland. The wealthy should pay their fair share of taxes, but inter-class blame solves nothing.

      If you disagree with me, be polite, or keep it to yourself. I’m not doing this for a dopamine high.

      Why did I take so long to announce? I was busy thinking.

      Thanks,

      Dave